Three predictions for all things omics in 2024

1. The Short-Read Market Sees Some Consolidation

Given the current economic climate and, more importantly, the climate in diagnostics and the life sciences, it seems inevitable that someone in the short read market is going to go bankrupt or get acquired.

I might go as far as to say that I don't think anyone is safe here…

Ok, that's not exactly true. I think Complete Genomics will be fine because they're a subsidiary of a much larger and well funded organization. They also have a pile of patent judgment money from Illumina so I think they're probably the safest.

But I actually think everyone else is on the bubble!

Both Illumina and Element are attractive acquisitions. Illumina because they're Illumina and are currently sitting at about double what Roche offered for them back in 2012. They also have a number of big payments coming up, and if Grail is divested they become even cheaper. It could be a good time for an opportunist to swoop in!

Element is really the only other company that has actual customers so if there's someone that wants to take the fight to Illumina and Complete, supercharging Element might be able to do some damage!

That said, I still think Singular and Ultima are going to struggle. Singular because the market has kind of already told them they're not interested, and Ultima because they're coming in with a pricey CAPEX instrument and technology that is unproven.

2. Proteomics Hits Commercialization Warp Speed

I'm super bullish on the future of proteomics and Thermo’s purchase of Olink hints at a bright future. Thermo usually only buys things that they think they can commercialize quickly and that's what I anticipate seeing over the next year.

I'm also encouraged by the continuous expansion of targets that are offered from both SomaLogic and Olink. These two provide the nearest term opportunity to bring proteomics to the clinic.

On the flip side, I think everyone in the startup space is going to struggle throughout 2024. I do hope many of the early stage protein sequencing and mass spec companies survive because I don't think multiplex immunoarrays are the ideal version of proteomics!

3. Labs Will Continue to Pretend the FDA Isn’t a Problem for Them

The deadline for submitting comments to the FDA about their new rule to regulate lab tests is Dec 4.

What this means is that FDA is likely to formulate their responses to those comments and move forward with congressional review of the rule next year.

If you're holding out hope that it's blocked, I think you're going to be disappointed.

And then the clock starts ticking...

I also don't think the industry titans are going to fight very hard. They're in the best position to mop up the customers left behind by the labs that wait too long to take this seriously!

That's the benefit of running IVDs and having everything NYS or FDA approved.